PUBLICATIONS

As part of our effort to push the state of climate science, CIRC team members regularly publish the results of our research in peer-reviewed scientific journals. We also aggregate this work and the work of our colleagues in the climate science community into periodic climate assessments. This page is a sampling of that work and is intended for people who want to delve into the details, methods, and assumptions underlying the climate and social science our team members produce. The page is organized by the following broad topics: Climate & Climate Modeling; the relationship between Snowpack, Hydrology, and Drought; Wildfires and Vegetation Shifts; Coastal Hazards & Extremes; and Community Adaptation & Social Science, an amalgam of reports covering our work and related projects, and the social science that informs it.

Climate Assessments

Think of climate assessments as the mile-high view. As their name implies, climate assessments assess. They aggregate, weigh, and judge. They gather the myriad climate reports and studies available, forming them into a whole that helps us glimpse the many ways climate change is likely to impact our lives. Because these impacts are expected to vary from region to region, climate assessments tend to highlight regional impacts. This was true of the Third National Climate Assessment, which covered, in detail, the impacts expected in several US regions. CIRC researchers participated in writing and editing the assessment’s chapter covering the Pacific Northwest. We then took everything we couldn’t fit into that single chapter report—which ended up being quite a lot—and rolled it into an extended climate assessment covering the Pacific Northwest: Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities.  

Dalton, M.M, K.D. Dello, L. Hawkins, P.W. Mote, and D.E. Rupp. "The Third Oregon Climate Assessment Report, Oregon Climate Change Research Institute," College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR. (2017) (Download the PDF

Dalton, M. M., P. W. Mote, and A.K. Snover, eds. "Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities." Washington, DC: Island Press, 2013. (Download the PDF)

Mote, P., A. K. Snover, S. Capalbo, S. D. Eigenbrode, P. Glick, J. Littell, R. Raymondi, and S. Reeder. “Chapter 21: Northwest: Climate Change Impacts in the United States” in The Third National Climate Assessment, edited by J. M. Melillo, Terese (T.C.) Richmond, and G. W. Yohe, 487-513. U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2014. doi:10.7930/J04Q7RWX. (Download the PDF)

"National Climate Assessment." National Climate Assessment. Accessed January 19, 2017, http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/ (Download the PDF)

Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (2010), Oregon Climate Assessment Report, K.D. Dello and P.W. Mote (eds). College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR (Download the PDF)

 

Peer-Reviewed Publications

CIRC participants regularly publish the results of their research and projects in peer-reviewed academic journals. Below is a selection of these publications. To make searching easier, we have organized our publications broadly by subject. Note: some publications have been listed in more than one section.  

 

Climate & Climate Modeling

Abatzoglou, J. T., and T. J. Brown. “A Comparison of Statistical Downscaling Methods Suited for Wildfire Applications,” International Journal of Climatology (2011). doi:10.1002/joc.2312.

Abatzoglou, J. T. “Development of gridded surface meteorological data for ecological applications and modeling.” International Journal of Climatology (2012). doi:10.1002/joc.3413.

Abatzoglou, J. T., D. E. Rupp and P. W. Mote. “Questionable evidence of natural warming of the northwestern United States.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2014) doi:10.1073/pnas.1421311112.

Abatzoglou, J. T., D. E. Rupp, P. W. Mote. “Seasonal climate variability and change in the Pacific Northwest of the United States.” Journal of Climate 27 (2014): 2125-2142. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00218.1. (Project: Integrated Scenarios)

Abatzoglou J. T., R. Barbero, J. W. Wolf, Z. Holden. “Tracking interannual streamflow variability with drought indices in the Pacific Northwest.” US Journal of Hydrometeorology 15 (2014): 1900-1912. doi:10.1175/JHM-D-13-0167.1.

Committee on Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution; Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate; Division on Earth and Life Studies; National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2016. doi:10.17226/21852. (CIRC Co-Lead Philip Mote co-author)

Li, S., P. W. Mote, D. Vickers, R. Mera, D. E. Rupp, A. Salahuddin, M. R. Allen, and R. G. Jones. “Evaluation of a regional climate modeling effort for the western US using a superensemble from climateprediction.net.” Journal of Climate (2015). doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00808.1. (Project: Integrated Scenarios)

Mauger, G. S., K. A. Bumbaco, G. J. Hakim, and P. W. Mote. “Optimal design of a climatological network: Beyond practical considerations.” Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems (2013). doi:10.5194/gi-2-199-2013. (Project: Envision Tillamook)

Mote, P. W., L. Brekke, P. Duffy, and E. Maurer. “Guidelines for constructing climate scenarios.” EOS Transactions American Geophysical Union (2011). doi:10.1029/2011EO310001.

Mote, P. W., M. R. Allen, R. G. Jones, S. Li, R. Mera, D. E. Rupp, A. Salahuddin, and D. Vickers. “Superensemble regional climate modeling for the western US.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2015). doi:10.1175/BAMS-D- 14-00090.1.

Mote, P. W. and K. T. Redmond. “Western Climate Change” in Ecological Consequences of Climate Change, Mechanisms, Conservation, and Management, edited by E. A. Beever and J. L. Belant. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, 2011.

Rupp, D. E., J. T. Abatzoglou, K. C. Hegewisch, and P. W. Mote. “Evaluation of CMIP5 20th century climate simulations for the Pacific Northwest USA,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 188 (2013). doi:10.1002/jgrd.50843. (Project: Integrated Scenarios)

Rupp, David E., and Sihan Li. "Less warming projected during heavy winter precipitation in the Cascades and Sierra Nevada." International Journal of Climatology (2016). doi: 10.1002/joc.4963

Rupp, David E., John T. Abatzoglou, and Philip W. Mote. "Projections of 21st century climate of the Columbia River Basin." Climate Dynamics (2016): 1-17. doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3418-7

Rupp, David E., Sihan Li, Philip W. Mote, Karen M. Shell, Neil Massey, Sarah N. Sparrow, David C. H. Wallom, and Myles R. Allen. “Seasonal spatial patterns of projected anthropogenic warming in complex terrain: a modeling study of the western US.” Climate Dynamics (2016): 1-23. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3200-x (Project: Integrated Scenarios)

 

Climate Adaptation & Social Science

“Scenarios of Future Water Availability in the Willamette River Basin Driven by Climate Change, Economics and Population to the Year 2099” Working title for final report to stakeholders and National Science Foundation. Publication date to be determined. (Project: Willamette Water 2100)

Amos, A. “Developing The Law of the River: The Integration of Law and Policy into Hydrologic and Socio-Economic Modeling Efforts in the Willamette River Basin.” Kansas University Law Review 62 no. 4 (May 2014). (Project: Willamette Water 2100)

Brown, Melanie, and Dominique Bachelet. "BLM Sagebrush Managers Give Feedback on Eight Climate Web Applications." Weather, Climate, and Society 9, no. 1 (2017): 39-52.

Halofsky, J. E. and D. L. Peterson. “Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Blue Mountains Region.” Portland, OR: US Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Station, 2015. (Project: Blue Mountain Adaptation Partnership)

Inouye, Allison, Denise Lach, John Stevenson, John Bolte, and Jennifer Koch. “Participatory Modeling to Assess Climate Impacts on Water Resources in the Big Wood Basin, Idaho.” in  Environmental Modeling with Stakeholders: Theory, Methods, and Applications, edited by S. Gray, M. Paolisso, R. Jordan, and S. Gray. Switzerland: Springer International Publishing, 2016. (Project: Big Wood Basin)

Lach, Denise. “An Experiment in Post-Normal Science: Building a Knowledge-to-Action-Network in Idaho.” in Wicked Problems, Science, and Problem Solving: New Strategies for Moving Forward, edited by Weber, Lach, and Steel, Corallis, OR: OSU Press, Forthcoming. (Project: Big Wood Basin)

Maldonado, Julie, T. M. Bull Bennett, Karletta Chief, Patricia Cochran, Karen Cozzetto, Bob Gough, Margaret Hiza Redsteer, Kathy Lynn, Nancy Maynard, and Garrit Voggesser. “Engagement with indigenous peoples and honoring traditional knowledge systems.” Climatic Change 135 no. 1 (2016): 111-126. doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1535-7. (Project: Pacific Northwest Tribal Climate Change Project)

Ruggiero, P., H. Baron, E. Harris, J. Allan, P. Komar, and P. Corcoran. “Incorporating uncertainty associated with climate change into coastal vulnerability assessments.” Proceedings of Solutions to Coastal Disasters Conference (2011). doi:10.1061/41185(417) 52 (Project: Envision Tillamook)

Vogel, J. M., J. B. Smith, M. O’Grady, P. Fleming, K. Heyn, A. Adams, D. Pierson, K. Brooks, and D. Behar. “Actionable Science in Practice: Co-producing Climate Change Information for Water Utility Vulnerability Assessment.” Final Report of the Piloting Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA) Project (2015). (Project: Piloting Utility Modeling Applications)

Weber, J. A., J. Cone, M. Kelly, and J. Stevenson. “Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation, Clatsop and Tillamook Counties.” Corvallis, OR: Oregon Sea Grant. (Project: North Coast Climate Adaptation)  

Winters, Kirsten M., Judith B. Cushing, and Denise Lach. "Designing visualization software for super-wicked problems." Information Polity Preprint (2016): 1-11. doi: 10.3233/IP-160400

Wolters, Erika Allen, Brent S. Steel, Denise Lach, and Daniel Kloepfer. “What is the best available science? A comparison of marine scientists, managers, and interest groups in the United States.” Ocean & Coastal Management 122 (2016): 95-102. doi:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2016.01.011. (Project: Envision Tillamook)

Zion Klos, John T. Abatzoglou, Alycia Bean, Jarod Blades, Melissa A. Clark, Megan Dodd, Troy E. Hall, Amanda Haruch, Philip E. Higuera, Joseph D. Holbrook, Vincent S. Jansen, Kerry Kemp, Amber Lankford, Timothy E. Link, Troy Magney, Arjan J. H. Meddens, Liza Mitchell, Brandon Moore, Penelope Morgan, Beth A. Newingham, Ryan J. Niemeyer, Ben Soderquist, Alexis A. Suazo, Kerri T. Vierling, Von Walden, and Chelsea Walsh. “Indicators of Climate Change in Idaho: An Assessment Framework for Coupling Biophysical Change and Social Perception.” Weather Climate and Society 7 no. 3 (July 2015): 238-254. doi:10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00070.

Snowpack, Hydrology, & Drought

Abatzoglou J. T., R. Barbero, J. W. Wolf, Z. Holden. “Tracking interannual streamflow variability with drought indices in the Pacific Northwest.” US Journal of Hydrometeorology 15 (2014): 1900-1912. doi:10.1175/JHM-D-13-0167.1.

Ashfaq, M., S. Ghosh, S-C Kao, L. C. Bowling, P. Mote, S. A. Rauscher, and N. S. Diffenbaugh. “Near-term acceleration of hydroclimatic change in the western US.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (2013). doi:10.1002/jgrd.50816.

Das, T., D. W. Pierce, D. R. Cayan, J. A. Vano, and D. P. Lettenmaier. “The importance of warm season warming to western U.S. streamflow changes,” Geophysical Research Letters 38 (2011). doi:10.1029/2011GL049660.

Jaeger, W. K., A. J. Plantinga, H. Chang, K. Dello, G. Grant, D. Hulse, J. McDonnell, S. Lancaster, H. Moradkhani, A. T. Morzillo, P. Mote, A. Nolin, M. Santelmann, and J. Wu. “Toward a formal definition of water scarcity in natural-human systems.” Water Resources Research (2013). doi: 10.1002/wrcr.20249.

Lute, A. C., J. T. Abatzoglou, and K. C. Hegewisch. “Projected changes in snowfall extremes and interannual variability of snowfall in the western United States.” Water Resources Research 51, no. 2 (2015): 960-973. doi:10.1002/2014WR016267.

Mao, Y., B. Nijssen, and D. P. Lettenmaier. “Is climate change implicated in the 2013–2014 California drought? A hydrologic perspective.” Geophysical Research Letters 42 (2015). doi:10.1002/2015GL063456.

Mote, Philip W., David E. Rupp, Sihan Li, Darrin J. Sharp, Friederike Otto, Peter F. Uhe, Mu Xiao, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Heidi Cullen, and Myles R. Allen. "Perspectives on the causes of exceptionally low 2015 snowpack in the western United States." Geophysical Research Letters 43, no. 20 (2016). doi: 10.1002/2016GL069965

Vano, J. A., T. Das, and D. P. Lettenmaier. ”Hydrologic sensitivities of Colorado River Runoff to Changes in Precipitation and Temperature,” Journal of Hydrometeorology (2012). doi:10.1175/JHM-D-11-069.1.

Vano, J. A., B. Nijssen, and D. P. Lettenmaier. “Seasonal hydrologic responses to climate change in the Pacific Northwest.” Water Resources Research 51 (2015): 1959-1976. doi:10.1002/2014WR01590. (Projects: Integrated Scenarios & Willamette Water 2100)

Vano, J. A., J. B. Kim, D. E. Rupp, and P. W. Mote. “Selecting climate change scenarios using impact-relevant sensitivities,” Geophysical Research Letters 42 (2015): 5516-5525. doi:10.1002/2015GL063208. (Projects: Integrated Scenarios & Willamette Water 2100)

Vogel, J. M., J. B. Smith, M. O’Grady, P. Fleming, K. Heyn, A. Adams, D. Pierson, K. Brooks, and D. Behar. “Actionable Science in Practice: Co-producing Climate Change Information for Water Utility Vulnerability Assessment” Final Report of the Piloting Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA) Project (2015). (Project: Piloting Utility Modeling Applications).

Williams, A. P., R. Seager, J. T. Abatzoglou, B. I. Cook, J. E. Smerdon, and E. R. Cook. “Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012–2014.” Geophysical Research Letters 42 (2015): 6819–6828. doi:10.1002/2015GL064924.

 

Wildfires & Vegetation Shifts

Abatzoglou, John T., and A. Park Williams. "Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113, no. 42 (2016): doi: 10.1073/pnas.1607171113

Bachelet, Dominique, Brendan M. Rogers, and David R. Conklin, “Challenges and Limitations of Using a DGVM for Local to Regional Applications.” Global Vegetation Dynamics: Concepts and Applications in the MC1 Model (2015): 31-40. doi: 10.1002/9781119011705.ch3. (Project: Integrated Scenarios)

Bachelet, Dominique, Ken Ferschweiler, Timothy Sheehan, and J. Strittholt. “Climate change effects on southern California deserts.” Journal of Arid Environments 127 (2016): 17-29. doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2015.10.003. (Project: Integrated Scenarios)

Bachelet, Dominique, Ken Ferschweiler, Timothy J. Sheehan, Benjamin M. Sleeter, and Zhiliang Zhu. “Projected carbon stocks in the conterminous USA with land use and variable fire regimes.” Global Change Biology 21 no. 12 (2015): 4548-4560. doi:10.1111/gcb.13048. (Project: Integrated Scenarios)

Balch, Jennifer K., Bethany A. Bradley, John T. Abatzoglou, R. Chelsea Nagy, Emily J. Fusco, and Adam L. Mahood. "Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2017): 201617394.

Barbero R., J. T. Abatzoglou, N. K. Larkin, C. A. Kolden, B. Stocks. “Climate change presents increased potential for very large fires in the contiguous United States.” International Journal of Wildland Fire (2015). http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF15083.

Parker, Lauren E. and John T. Abatzoglou. “Projected changes in cold hardiness zones and suitable overwinter ranges of perennial crops over the United States.” Environmental Research Letters 11 no. 3 (2016). doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034001.

Rupp, D. E., J. T. Abatzoglou, K. C. Hegewisch, P. W. Mote. “Evaluation of CMIP5 20th century climate simulations for the Pacific Northwest USA,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 188 (2013). doi:10.1002/jgrd.50843. (Project: Integrated Scenarios)

Stavros, E. N., J. T. Abatzoglou, D. McKenzie, and N. K. Larkin. “Regional projections of the likelihood of very large wildland fires under a changing climate in the contiguous Western United States.” Climatic Change 126 (2014):455-468. doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1229-6.

Sheehan, T., D. Bachelet, and K. Ferschweiler. “Projected major fire and vegetation changes in the Pacific Northwest of the conterminous United States under selected CMIP5 climate futures.” Ecological Modeling 317 (2015): 16-29: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.08.023. (Project: Integrated Scenarios)

Turner, D. P., W. D. Ritts, R. Kennedy, A. Gray, Z. Yang. “Effects of harvest, fire, and pest/pathogen disturbances on the West Cascades ecoregion carbon balance.” Carbon Balance and Management 10 no. 12 (2015). doi:10.1186/s13021-015-0022-9. (Projects: Integrated Scenarios & Willamette Water 2100)

Turner, D. P., D. R.Conklin, J. P. Bolte. “Projected climate change impacts on forest land cover and land use over the Willamette River Basin, Oregon,” Climatic Change (2015). doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1465-4. (Projects: Integrated Scenarios & Willamette Water 2100)

 

Coastal Hazards & Extremes

Cohn, Nicholas and Peter Ruggiero. “The influence of seasonal to interannual nearshore profile variability on extreme water levels: Modeling wave runup on dissipative beaches.” Coastal Engineering (2016). doi:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2016.01.006. (Project: Envision Tillamook)

Komar, P. D., J. C. Allan, and P. Ruggiero. “US Pacific Northwest Coastal Hazards: Tectonic and Climate Controls,” Coastal Hazards, edited by C. Finkl (2013): 587-674. (Project: Envision Tillamook)

Kruk, M. C., J. J. Marra, M. Merrifield, P. Ruggiero, D. Atkinson, D. Levinson, and M. Lander. “Pacific Storms Climatology Products (PSCP): Understanding Extreme Events.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2013). doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00075.1. (Project: Envision Tillamook)

Ruggiero, P., H. Baron, E. Harris, J. Allan, P. Komar, and P. Corcoran. “Incorporating uncertainty associated with climate change into coastal vulnerability assessments.” Proceedings of Solutions to Coastal Disasters Conference (2011). doi:10.1061/41185(417)52. (Project: Envision Tillamook)

Ruggiero, Peter, Paul D. Komar, and Jonathan C. Allan. “Increasing wave heights and extreme value projections: The wave climate of the US Pacific Northwest.” Coastal Engineering 57 no. 5 (2010): 539-552. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2009.12.005

Ruggiero, P. “Is the intensifying wave climate of the US Pacific Northwest increasing flooding and erosion risk faster than sea level rise?” Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering (2013). doi:10.1061/(ASCE)WW.1943-5460.0000172. (Project: Envision Tillamook)

Ruggiero, Peter, George M. Kaminsky, Guy Gelfenbaum, and Nicholas Cohn. “Morphodynamics of prograding beaches: A synthesis of seasonal-to century-scale observations of the Columbia River littoral cell.” Marine Geology 376 (2016): 51-68. doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2016.03.012.

Ruggiero, P., M. G. Kratzmann, E. A. Himmelstoss, D. Reid, J. Allan, and G. Kaminsky. National assessment of shoreline change—Historical shoreline change along the Pacific Northwest coast: Open-File Report 2012-1007. Reston, VA: U.S. Geological Survey, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/ofr20121007.

Serafin, Katherine A., Peter Ruggiero, and Hilary F. Stockdon. "The relative contribution of waves, tides, and nontidal residuals to extreme total water levels on US West Coast sandy beaches." Geophysical Research Letters (2017).

Serafin, K. and P. Ruggiero. “Simulating extreme total water level events using a time-dependent, extreme value approach,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 119 (2014): 6305-6329. doi:10.1002/2014JC010093. (Project: Envision Tillamook)

Weber, J. A., J. Cone, M. Kelly, and J. Stevenson. “Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation, Clatsop and Tillamook Counties.” Corvallis, OR: Oregon Sea Grant. (Project: North Coast Climate Adaptation)