PUBLICATIONS

As part of our effort to push the state of climate science, CIRC team members regularly publish the results of our research in peer-reviewed scientific journals. We also aggregate this work and the work of our colleagues in the climate science community into periodic climate assessments. This page is a sampling of that work and is intended for people who want to delve into the details, methods, and assumptions underlying the climate and social science our team members produce. The page is organized by the following broad topics: Climate & Climate Modeling; the relationship between Snowpack, Hydrology, and Drought; Wildfires and Vegetation Shifts; Coastal Hazards & Extremes; and Community Adaptation & Social Science, an amalgam of reports covering our work and related projects, and the social science that informs it.

Climate Assessments

Think of climate assessments as the mile-high view. As their name implies, climate assessments assess. They aggregate, weigh, and judge. They gather the myriad climate reports and studies available, forming them into a whole that helps us glimpse the many ways climate change is likely to impact our lives. Because these impacts are expected to vary from region to region, climate assessments tend to highlight regional impacts. This was true of the Third National Climate Assessment, which covered, in detail, the impacts expected in several US regions. CIRC researchers participated in writing and editing the assessment’s chapter covering the Pacific Northwest. We then took everything we couldn’t fit into that single chapter report—which ended up being quite a lot—and rolled it into an extended climate assessment covering the Pacific Northwest: Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities.  

Dalton, Meghan M., Kathie D. Dello, Linnia Hawkins, Philip W. Mote, and David E. Rupp. The Third Oregon Climate Assessment Report, Oregon Climate Change Research Institute. Corvallis, Oregon: College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, 2017. (Download the PDF.) 

Dalton, Meghan M., Philip W. Mote, Amy K. Snover, eds. Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities. Washington, DC: Island Press, 2013. Print ISBN: 9781610914284. E-Book ISBN: 9781610915120. (Download the PDF.)

Mote, Philip W., Amy K. Snover, Susan Capalbo, Sanford D. Eigenbrode, Patty Glick, Jeremy Littell, Richard Raymondi, and Spencer Reeder. "Chapter 21: Northwest." In Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, edited by Jerry M. Melillo, Terese (TC) Richmond, and Gary W. Yohe, 487-513.  Washington, D.C.: US Global Change Research Program, 2014. http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/regions/northwest. (Download the PDF.)

Melillo, Jerry M., Terese (T.C.) Richmond, and Gary W. Yohe, eds. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Global Change Research Program. ISBN: 9780160924026. http://nca2014.globalchange.gov.  (Download the PDF.)

Dello, Kathie D., Philip W. Mote, editors. Oregon Climate Change Assessment Report, December 2010. Corvallis, Oregon: Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, 2010. (Download the PDF.)

 

Project Reports

Clifton, Caty F., Kate T. Day, Kathie D. Dello, Gordon E. Grant, Jessica E. Halofsky, Daniel J. Isaak, Charles H. Luce, Mohammad Safeeq, Brian P. Staab, and John Stevenson. "Climate change and hydrology in the Blue Mountains." In Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Blue Mountains Region, General Technical Report-Pacific Northwest Research Station, edited by Jessica E. Halofsky, and David Lawrence Peterson, 25-52. Fort Collins, Colorado: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 2017. General Technical Report: PNW-GTR-939. http://adaptationpartners.org/bmap/docs/BMAP_final.pdf. (Project: Blue Mountains Adaptation Partnership.)

Cone, Joe, Monty Johnson, Miriah Kelly, Colin Duncan, Kirsten Winters, and John Stevenson. Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation, Clatsop and Tillamook Counties. Companion report to Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation, Clatsop and Tillamook Counties. Corvallis, Oregon: Oregon Sea Grant, 2015. (Download the PDF.) (Project: Envision Tillamook Coastal Futures.)

Mote, Philip W., John T. Abatzoglou, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Dave P. Turner, David E. Rupp, Dominique Bachelet, and David R. Conklin. Integrated Scenarios of Climate, Hydrology, and Vegetation for the Northwest, Final Report. Corvallis, Oregon: Pacific Northwest Climate Impacts Research Consortium, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, 2014. (Download the PDF.) (Project: Integrated Scenarios.) 

Joyce, Linda A., Marian Talbert, Darrin Sharp, Jeffrey Morisette, and John Stevenson,  “Historical and Projected Climate in the Northern Rockies.” In Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Northern Rockies (draft), edited by Jessica E. Halofsky, David Lawrence Peterson,S. Karen Dante-Wood, Linh Hoang, Joanne J. Ho, and Linda A. Joyce, 58-65. Fort Collins, Colorado: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 2016. General Technical Report: RMRS-GTR. http://adaptationpartners.org/nrap/docs/NRAPFinalDraft_2016.07.25.pdf. (Project: Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership.)​

Ruggiero, Peter, Eva Lipiec, Alexis Mills, John Bolte, Pat Corcoran, John Stevenson, Katherine A. Serafin, and Janan Evans-Wilent. The Tillamook County Coastal Futures Project: Exploring alternative scenarios for Tillamook County’s coastline. Corvallis, Oregon: Pacific Northwest Climate Impacts Research Consortium, Oregon State University, 2017. (Download the PDF.) (Project: Envision Tillamook Coastal Futures.)

Vogel, Jason M., Joel B. Smith, Megan O’Grady, Paul Fleming, Kavita Heyn, Alison Adams, Don Pierson, Keely Brooks, and David Behar. Actionable Science in Practice: Co-producing Climate Change Information for Water Utility Vulnerability Assessments. Final Report of the Piloting Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA) Project. Water Utility Climate Alliance, 2015. http://www.wucaonline.org/assets/pdf/pubs-puma-white-paper-20150427.pdf (Project: PUMA.) 

Weber, Jeffrey A., Miriah R. Kelly, Joe Cone, and John Stevenson. Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation, Clatsop and Tillamook Counties. Corvallis, Oregon: Oregon Sea Grant, 2015. (Download the PDF.) (Project: Envision Tillamook Coastal Futures.)

 

Peer-Reviewed Publications

CIRC participants regularly publish the results of their research and projects in peer-reviewed academic journals. Below is a selection of these publications. To make searching easier, we have organized our publications broadly by subject. Note: some publications have been listed in more than one section.  

 

Climate & Climate Modeling

Abatzoglou, John T., and David E. Rupp. "Evaluating Climate Model Simulations of Drought for the Northwestern United States." International Journal of Climatology 37, no. S1 (2017): 910–920. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5046.

Abatzoglou, John T., and Timothy J. Brown. "A Comparison of Statistical Downscaling Methods Suited for Wildfire Applications." International Journal of Climatology 32, no. 5 (2012): 772-780. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2312.

Abatzoglou, John T. "Development of Gridded Surface Meteorological Data for Ecological Applications and Modelling." International Journal of Climatology 33, no. 1 (2013): 121-131. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3413.

Abatzoglou, John T., David E. Rupp, and Philip W. Mote. "Questionable Evidence of Natural Warming of the Northwestern United States." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111, no. 52 (2014): E5605-E5606. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1421311112.

Abatzoglou, John T., David E. Rupp, and Philip W. Mote. "Seasonal Climate Variability and Change in the Pacific Northwest of the United States." Journal of Climate 27, no. 5 (2014): 2125-2142. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00218.1.

Abatzoglou, John T., Renaud Barbero, Jacob W. Wolf, and Zachary A. Holden. "Tracking Interannual Streamflow Variability with Drought Indices in the US Pacific Northwest." Journal of Hydrometeorology 15, no. 5 (2014): 1900-1912. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-0167.1.

Barbero, Renaud, John T. Abatzoglou, and Katherine C. Hegewisch. "Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling of North American Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts over the Western United States." Weather and Forecasting 32, no. 1 (2017): 327-341. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-16-0117.1.

Bumbaco, Karin A., Kathie D. Dello, and Nicholas A. Bond. "History of Pacific Northwest Heat Waves: Synoptic Pattern and Trends." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 52, no. 7 (2013): 1618-1631. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-12-094.1.

Huntington, Justin L., Katherine C. Hegewisch, Britta Daudert, Charles G. Morton, John T. Abatzoglou, Daniel J. McEvoy, and Tyler Erickson. "Climate Engine: Cloud Computing and Visualization of Climate and Remote Sensing Data for Advanced Natural Resource Monitoring and Process Understanding." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2017, in press (2017). https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00324.1.

Li, Sihan, Philip W. Mote, David E. Rupp, Dean Vickers, Roberto Mera, and Myles Allen. "Evaluation of a Regional Climate Modeling Effort for the Western United States Using a Superensemble from weather@ home." Journal of Climate 28, no. 19 (2015): 7470-7488. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00808.1.

Mauger, Guillaume S., Karin A. Bumbaco, Gregory J. Hakim, and Philip W. Mote. "Optimal Design of a Climatological Network: Beyond Practical Considerations." Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems 2, no. 2 (2013): 199-212. https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-2-199-2013.

Mote, Philip W., Levi Brekke, Philip B. Duffy, and Ed Maurer. "Guidelines for Constructing Climate Scenarios." Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 92, no. 31 (2011): 257-258. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011EO310001.

Mote, Philip W., Myles R. Allen, Richard G. Jones, Sihan Li, Roberto Mera, David E. Rupp, Ahmed Salahuddin, and Dean Vickers. "Superensemble Regional Climate Modeling for the Western United States." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 97, no. 2 (2016): 203-215. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00090.1.

Mote, Philip W., and Kelly T. Redmond. “Western Climate Change.” In Ecological Consequences of Climate Change, Mechanisms, Conservation, and Management, edited by Erik A. Beever, Jerrold L. Belant, 3-21. Boca Raton, Florida: CRC Press, published by Taylor & Francis Group, LCC, 2011. Print ISBN: 978-1-4200-8720-8

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Committee on Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change. Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2016.  Print ISBN: 9780309380942. E-book ISBN:9780309380973. https://doi.org/10.17226/21852.

Rupp, David E., John T. Abatzoglou, Katherine C. Hegewisch, and Philip W. Mote. "Evaluation of CMIP5 20th Century Climate Simulations for the Pacific Northwest USA." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 118, no. 19 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50843.

Rupp, David E., and Sihan Li. "Less Warming Projected During Heavy Winter Precipitation in the Cascades and Sierra Nevada." International Journal of Climatology 37, no. 10 (2017): 3984-3990. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4963.

Rupp, David E., Sihan Li, Philip W. Mote, Karen M. Shell, Neil Massey, Sarah N. Sparrow, David CH Wallom, and Myles R. Allen. "Seasonal Spatial Patterns of Projected Anthropogenic Warming in Complex Terrain: A Modeling Study of the Western US." Climate Dynamics (2016): 1-23. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3200-x.

Rupp, David E., John T. Abatzoglou, and Philip W. Mote. "Projections of 21st Century Climate of the Columbia River Basin." Climate Dynamics (2016): 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3418-7.

Rupp, David E., Sihan Li, Philip W. Mote, Karen M. Shell, Neil Massey, Sarah N. Sparrow, David CH Wallom, and Myles R. Allen. "Seasonal Spatial Patterns of Projected Anthropogenic Warming in Complex Terrain: a Modeling Study of the Western US." Climate Dynamics 48, no. 7-8 (2017): 2191-2213. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3200-x.

 

Climate Adaptation & Social Science

Amos, Adell L. "Developing the Law of the River: The Integration of Law and Policy into Hydrologic and Socio-Economic Modeling Efforts in the Willamette River Basin." University of Kansas Law Review, 62 (2014): 1091-1139. https://doi.org/10.17161/1808.20266.

Brown, Melanie, and Dominique Bachelet. "BLM Sagebrush Managers Give Feedback on Eight Climate Web Applications." Weather, Climate, and Society 9, no. 1 (2017): 39-52. https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-16-0034.1.

Katherine C. Hegewisch, Britta Daudert, Charles G. Morton, John T. Abatzoglou, Daniel J. McEvoy, and Tyler Erickson. "Climate Engine: Cloud Computing and Visualization of Climate and Remote Sensing Data for Advanced Natural Resource Monitoring and Process Understanding." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2017). https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00324.1.

Inouye, Allison M., Denise H. Lach, John Stevenson, John P. Bolte, and Jennifer Koch. "Participatory Modeling to Assess Climate Impacts on Water Resources in the Big Wood Basin, Idaho." In Environmental Modeling with Stakeholders, edited by Steven Gray, Michael Paolisso, Rebecca Jordan, and Stefan Gray, 289-306. AG, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing, 2017. Print ISBN: 978-3-319-25051-9. Online ISBN: 978-3-319-25053-3. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-25053-3_14

Klos, P. Zion, John T. Abatzoglou, Alycia Bean, Jarod Blades, Melissa A. Clark, Megan Dodd, Troy E. Hall et al. "Indicators of Climate Change in Idaho: An Assessment Framework for Coupling Biophysical Change and Social Perception a." Weather, Climate, and Society 7, no. 3 (2015): 238-254. https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00070.1.

Lach, Denise. “An Experiment in Post-Normal Science: Building a Knowledge-to-Action-Network in Idaho.” In New Strategies for Wicked Problems: Science and Solutions in the 21st century, edited by Edward P. Weber, Denise Lach, and Brent Steel, Corvallis, Oregon: Oregon State University Press, 2017. Print ISBN: 9780870718939. http://osupress.oregonstate.edu/book/new-strategies-for-wicked-problems.

Maldonado, Julie, TM Bull Bennett, Karletta Chief, Patricia Cochran, Karen Cozzetto, Bob Gough, Margaret Hiza Redsteer, Kathy Lynn, Nancy Maynard, and Garrit Voggesser. "Engagement with indigenous peoples and honoring traditional knowledge systems." Climatic Change 135, no. 1 (2016): 111-126. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1535-7.

Ruggiero, Peter, Heather Baron, Erica Harris, Jonathan Allan, Paul D. Komar, and Patrick Corcoran. "Incorporating Uncertainty Associated with Climate Change into Coastal Vulnerability Assessments." In Solutions to Coastal Disasters, edited by Bilal M. Ayyub and Michael S. Kearney, 602-613. Reston, Virginia: American Society of Civil Engineers, 2011.  Print ISBN 9780784412008. E-book ISBN 9780784476512. https://doi.org/10.1061/41185(417)52.

Stevenson, John, Michael Crimmins, Jessica Whitehead, Julie Brugger, and Clyde Fraisse. "Connecting climate information with practical uses: Extension and the NOAA RISA program." In Climate in Context: Science and Society Partnering for Adaptation, edited by Adam S. Parris, Gregg M. Garfin, Kirstin Dow, Ryan Meyer, and Sarah L. Close, 75-98. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., 2016. Print ISBN: 9781118474792. E-book ISBN: 9781118474785. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118474785.

Weber, Edward P., Denise Lach, and Brent S. Steel, editors. New Strategies for Wicked Problems: Science and Solutions in the 21st Century. Corvallis, Oregon: Oregon State University Press, 2017. Print ISBN: 9780870718939. http://osupress.oregonstate.edu/book/new-strategies-for-wicked-problems.

Winters, Kirsten M., Judith B. Cushing, and Denise Lach. "Designing Visualization Software for Super-Wicked Problems." Information Polity Preprint 21, no. 4 (2016): 399-409. https://doi.org/10.3233/IP-160400.

Wolters, Erika Allen, Brent S. Steel, Denise Lach, and Daniel Kloepfer. "What is the Best Available Science? A Comparison of Marine Scientists, Managers, and Interest Groups in the United States." Ocean & Coastal Management 122 (2016): 95-102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2016.01.011.

 

Snowpack, Hydrology, & Drought

Abatzoglou, John T., Daniel J. McEvoy, and Kelly T. Redmond. "The West Wide Drought Tracker: Drought Monitoring at Fine Spatial Scales." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2017). https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0193.1.

Abatzoglou, John T., and David E. Rupp. "Evaluating Climate Model Simulations of Drought for the Northwestern United States." International Journal of Climatology 37, no. S1 (2017): 910–920. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5046.

Abatzoglou, John T., Renaud Barbero, Jacob W. Wolf, and Zachary A. Holden. "Tracking Interannual Streamflow Variability with Drought Indices in the US Pacific Northwest." Journal of Hydrometeorology 15, no. 5 (2014): 1900-1912. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-0167.1.

Ashfaq, Moetasim, Subimal Ghosh, Shih-Chieh Kao, Laura C. Bowling, Philip W. Mote, Danielle Touma, Sara A. Rauscher, and Noah S. Diffenbaugh. "Near-Term Acceleration of Hydroclimatic Change in the Western US." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 118, no. 19 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50816.

Bachelet, Dominique, Ken Ferschweiler, Timothy J. Sheehan, and James Strittholt. "Climate Change Effects on Southern California Deserts." Journal of Arid Environments 127 (2016): 17-29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2015.10.003.

Das, Tapash, David W. Pierce, Daniel R. Cayan, Julie A. Vano, and Dennis P. Lettenmaier. "The Importance of Warm Season Warming to Western US Streamflow Changes." Geophysical Research Letters 38, no. 23 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049660.

Gergel, Diana R., Bart Nijssen, John T. Abatzoglou, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, and Matt R. Stumbaugh. "Effects of Climate Change on Snowpack and Fire Potential in the Western USA." Climatic Change 141, no. 2 (2017): 287-299. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1899-y.

Jaeger, William K., Andrew J. Plantinga, Heejun Chang, Kathie Dello, Gordon Grant, David Hulse, J. J. McDonnell et al. "Toward a Formal Definition of Water Scarcity in Natural-Human Systems." Water Resources Research 49, no. 7 (2013): 4506-4517. https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20249.

Luce, Charles H., John T. Abatzoglou, and Zachary A. Holden. "The Missing Mountain Water: Slower Westerlies Decrease Orographic Enhancement in the Pacific Northwest USA." Science 342, no. 6164 (2013): 1360-1364. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1242335

Lute, A. C., John T. Abatzoglou, and Katherine C. Hegewisch. "Projected Changes in Snowfall Extremes and Interannual Variability of Snowfall in the Western United States." Water Resources Research 51, no. 2 (2015): 960-972. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016267.

Mao, Yixin, Bart Nijssen, and Dennis P. Lettenmaier. "Is Climate Change Implicated in the 2013–2014 California Drought? A Hydrologic Perspective." Geophysical Research Letters 42, no. 8 (2015): 2805-2813. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063456.

Mote, Philip W., David E. Rupp, Sihan Li, Darrin J. Sharp, Friederike Otto, Peter F. Uhe, Mu Xiao, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Heidi Cullen, and Myles R. Allen. "Perspectives on the Causes of Exceptionally Low 2015 Snowpack in the Western United States." Geophysical Research Letters 43, no. 20 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069965.

Parker, Lauren E., and John T. Abatzoglou. “Comparing Mechanistic and Empirical Approaches to Modeling the Thermal Niche of Almond.” International Journal of Biometeorology (2017): 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-017-1338-9.

Rupp, David E., Sihan Li, Philip W. Mote, Neil Massey, Sarah N. Sparrow, and David CH Wallom. "Influence of the Ocean and Greenhouse Gases on Severe Drought Likelihood in the Central United States in 2012." Journal of Climate 30, no. 5 (2017): 1789-1806. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0294.1.

Rupp, David E., and Sihan Li. "Less Warming Projected During Heavy Winter Precipitation in the Cascades and Sierra Nevada." International Journal of Climatology 37, no. 10 (2017): 3984-3990. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4963.

Rupp, David E., John T. Abatzoglou, and Philip W. Mote. "Projections of 21st Century Climate of the Columbia River Basin." Climate Dynamics (2016): 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3418-7.

Sun, Ning, John Yearsley, Marisa Baptiste, Qian Cao, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, and Bart Nijssen. "A Spatially Distributed Model for Assessment of the Effects of Changing Land Use and Climate on Urban Stream Quality." Hydrological Processes 30, no. 25 (2016): 4779-4798. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10964.

Turner, David P., David R. Conklin, Kellie B. Vache, Cynthia Schwartz, Anne W. Nolin, Heejun Chang, Eric Watson, and John P. Bolte. "Assessing Mechanisms of Climate Change Impact on the Upland Forest Water Balance of the Willamette River Basin, Oregon." Ecohydrology 10, no. 1 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1002/eco.1776.

Vano, Julie A., Tapash Das, and Dennis P. Lettenmaier. "Hydrologic Sensitivities of Colorado River Runoff to Changes in Precipitation and Temperature." Journal of Hydrometeorology 13, no. 3 (2012): 932-949. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-11-069.1.

Vano, Julie A., Bart Nijssen, and Dennis P. Lettenmaier. "Seasonal Hydrologic Responses to Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest." Water Resources Research 51, no. 4 (2015): 1959-1976. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015909.

Vano, Julie A., John B. Kim, David E. Rupp, and Philip W. Mote. "Selecting Climate Change Scenarios Using Impact-Relevant Sensitivities." Geophysical Research Letters 42, no. 13 (2015): 5516-5525. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063208.

Williams, A. Park, Richard Seager, John T. Abatzoglou, Benjamin I. Cook, Jason E. Smerdon, and Edward R. Cook. "Contribution of Anthropogenic Warming to California Drought During 2012–2014." Geophysical Research Letters 42, no. 16 (2015): 6819-6828. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064924.

 

Wildfires, Forests, & Agriculture

Abatzoglou, John T., and A. Park Williams. "Impact of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Wildfire across Western US Forests." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113, no. 42 (2016): 11770-11775. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1607171113.

Abatzoglou, John T., Crystal A. Kolden, A. Park Williams, James A. Lutz, and Alistair MS Smith. "Climatic Influences on Interannual Variability in Regional Burn Severity across Western US forests." International Journal of Wildland Fire, no. 4 (2017): 269-275. https://doi.org/10.1071/WF16165.

Bachelet, Dominique, Brendan M. Rogers, and David R. Conklin. "Challenges and Limitations of Using a DGVM for Local to Regional Applications." In Global Vegetation Dynamics: Concepts and Applications in the MC1 Model, Geophysical Monograph 213, First Edition, edited by Dominique Bachelet and David Turner. Hoboken: 31-40. American Geophysical Union published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2015. Print ISBN: 978-1-119-01169-9. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119011705.ch3.

Bachelet, Dominique, Ken Ferschweiler, Timothy J. Sheehan, Benjamin M. Sleeter, and Zhiliang Zhu. "Projected Carbon Stocks in the Conterminous USA with Land Use and Variable Fire Regimes." Global Change Biology 21, no. 12 (2015): 4548-4560. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13048.

Bachelet, Dominique, Timothy J. Sheehan, Ken Ferschweiler, and John T. Abatzoglou. "Simulating Vegetation Change, Carbon Cycling, and Fire Over the Western United States Using CMIP5 Climate Projections." In Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment: Modeling and Decision Support, Geophysical Monograph 223, First Edition, edited by Karin Riley, Peter Webly, and Matthew Thompson. Hoboken: 257-275. American Geophysical Union published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2017. Print ISBN: 9781119027867.

Balch, Jennifer K., Bethany A. Bradley, John T. Abatzoglou, R. Chelsea Nagy, Emily J. Fusco, and Adam L. Mahood. "Human-Started Wildfires Expand the Fire Niche Across the United States." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, no. 11 (2017): 2946-2951. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1617394114.

Barbero, Renaud, John T. Abatzoglou, and Katherine C. Hegewisch. "Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling of North American Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts over the Western United States." Weather and Forecasting 32, no. 1 (2017): 327-341. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-16-0117.1

Barbero, Renaud, John T. Abatzoglou, Narasimhan Larkin, Crystal A. Kolden, and B. J. Stocks. "Climate Change Presents Increased Potential for Very Large Fires in the Contiguous United States." International Journal of Wildland Fire 24, no. 7 (2015): 892-899. https://doi.org/10.1071/WF15083.

Bowman, David M.J.S., Grant J. Williamson, John T. Abatzoglou, Crystal A. Kolden, Mark A. Cochrane, and Alistair MS Smith. "Human exposure and sensitivity to globally extreme wildfire events." Nature Ecology & Evolution 1 (2017): 0058. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-016-0058.

Buotte, Polly C., Jeffrey A. Hicke, Haiganoush K. Preisler, John T. Abatzoglou, Kenneth F. Raffa, and Jesse A. Logan. "Recent and Future Climate Suitability for Whitebark Pine Mortality from Mountain Pine Beetles Varies Across the Western US." Forest Ecology and Management 399 (2017): 132-142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2017.05.032.

Gergel, Diana R., Bart Nijssen, John T. Abatzoglou, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, and Matt R. Stumbaugh. "Effects of Climate Change on Snowpack and Fire Potential in the Western USA." Climatic Change 141, no. 2 (2017): 287-299. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1899-y.

Hardegree, Stuart P., John T. Abatzoglou, Mark W. Brunson, Matthew J. Germino, Katherine C. Hegewisch, Corey A. Moffet, David S. Pilliod, Bruce A. Roundy, Alex R. Boehm, and Gwendwr R. Meredith. "Weather-Centric Rangeland Revegetation Planning." Rangeland Ecology & Management (2017). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rama.2017.07.003.

Mu, Jianhong E., Benjamin M. Sleeter, John T. Abatzoglou, and John M. Antle. "Climate Impacts on Agricultural Land Use in the USA: The Role of Socio-Economic Scenarios." Climatic Change (2017): 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2033-x.

Parker, Lauren E., and John T. Abatzoglou. "Projected Changes in Cold Hardiness Zones and Suitable Overwinter Ranges of Perennial Crops over the United States." Environmental Research Letters 11, no. 3 (2016): 034001. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034001.

Rupp, David E., and Sihan Li. "Less warming projected during heavy winter precipitation in the Cascades and Sierra Nevada." International Journal of Climatology 37, no. 10 (2017): 3984-3990. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4963.

Rupp, David E., John T. Abatzoglou, Katherine C. Hegewisch, and Philip W. Mote. "Evaluation of CMIP5 20th Century Climate Simulations for the Pacific Northwest USA." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 118, no. 19 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50843.

Stavros, E. Natasha, John T. Abatzoglou, Donald McKenzie, and Narasimhan K. Larkin. "Regional Projections of the Likelihood of Very Large Wildland Fires under a Changing Climate in the Contiguous Western United States." Climatic Change 126, no. 3-4 (2014): 455-468. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1229-6.

Sheehan, Timothy J., Dominique Bachelet, and Ken Ferschweiler.  “Projected Major Fire and Vegetation Changes in the Pacific Northwest of the Conterminous United States under Selected CMIP5 Climate Futures.” Ecological Modeling 317 (2015): 16-29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.08.023.

Turner, David P., William D. Ritts, Robert E. Kennedy, Andrew N. Gray, and Zhiqiang Yang. "Effects of Harvest, Fire, and Pest/Pathogen Disturbances on the West Cascades Ecoregion Carbon Balance." Carbon Balance and Management 10, no. 1 (2015): 12. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-015-0022-9.

Turner, David P., David R. Conklin, and John P. Bolte. "Projected climate change impacts on forest land cover and land use over the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, USA." Climatic Change 133, no. 2 (2015): 335-348. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1465-4.

Xiao, Mu, Bart Nijssen, and Dennis P. Lettenmaier. "Drought in the Pacific Northwest, 1920–2013." Journal of Hydrometeorology 17, no. 9 (2016): 2391-2404. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-15-0142.1.

 

Coastal Hazards & Extremes

Barnard, Patrick L., Daniel Hoover, David M. Hubbard, Alex Snyder, Bonnie C. Ludka, Jonathan Allan, George M. Kaminsky, Peter Ruggiero, Timu W. Gallien, Laura Gabel, Diana McCandless, Heather M. Weiner, Nichola Cohn, Dylan L. Anderson, and Katherine A. Serafin. "Extreme Oceanographic Forcing and Coastal Response Due to the 2015–2016 El Niño." Nature Communications 8 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14365.

Barnard, Patrick L., Jonathan Allan, Jeff E. Hansen, George M. Kaminsky, Peter Ruggiero, and André Doria. "The impact of the 2009–10 El Niño Modoki on US West Coast beaches." Geophysical Research Letters 38, no. 13 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047707.

Baron, Heather M., Peter Ruggiero, Nathan J. Wood, Erica L. Harris, Jonathan Allan, Paul D. Komar, and Patrick Corcoran. "Incorporating climate change and morphological uncertainty into coastal change hazard assessments." Natural Hazards 75, no. 3 (2015): 2081-2102. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1417-8.

Biel, Reuben G., Sally D. Hacker, Peter Ruggiero, Nicholas Cohn, and Eric W. Seabloom. "Coastal Protection and Conservation on Sandy Beaches and Dunes: Context‐Dependent Tradeoffs in Ecosystem Service Supply." Ecosphere 8, no. 4 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.1791.

Cohn, Nicholas, and Peter Ruggiero. "The Influence of Seasonal to Interannual Nearshore Profile Variability on Extreme Water Levels: Modeling Wave Runup on Dissipative Beaches." Coastal Engineering 115 (2016): 79-92. 9 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2016.01.006.

García Medina, Gabriel, H. Özkan Haller, Rob A. Holman, and Peter Ruggiero. "Large Runup Controls on a Gently Sloping Dissipative Beach." Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 122, no. 7 (2017): 5998–6010. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC012862.

Komar, Paul D., Jonathan C. Allan, and Peter Ruggiero. "US Pacific Northwest Coastal Hazards: Tectonic and Climate Controls." In Coastal Hazards, edited by by Charles W. Finkl,pp. 587-674. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Springer Netherlands, 2013. Print ISBN: 978-94-007-5233-7. Online ISBN: 978-94-007-5234-4. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-5234-4_21.

Kruk, Michael C., John J. Marra, Peter Ruggiero, David Atkinson, Mark Merrifield, David Levinson, and Mark Lander. "Pacific Storms Climatology Products (PSCP): Understanding Extreme Events." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 94, no. 1 (2013): 13-18. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00075.1.

Rueda, Ana, Sean Vitousek, Paula Camus, Antonio Tomás, Antonio Espejo, Inigo J. Losada, Patrick L. Barnard, Li H. Erikson, Peter Ruggiero, Borja G. Reguero, and Fernando J. Mendez. "A Global Classification of Coastal Flood Hazard Climates Associated with Large-Scale Oceanographic Forcing." Scientific Reports 7 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-05090-w.

Ruggiero, Peter, Heather Baron, Erica Harris, Jonathan Allan, Paul D. Komar, and Patrick Corcoran. "Incorporating Uncertainty Associated with Climate Change into Coastal Vulnerability Assessments." In Solutions to Coastal Disasters 2011 Proceedings of the 2011 Solutions to Coastal Disasters Conference, June 25-29, 2011 Anchorage, Alaska, edited by Louise A. Wallendorf, Chris Jones, Lesley Ewing, and Bob Battalio, 602-613. American Society of Civil Engineers, 2011. Print ISBN: 9780784411858. https://doi.org/10.1061/41185(417)52.

Ruggiero, Peter, Paul D. Komar, and Jonathan C. Allan. "Increasing Wave Heights and Extreme Value Projections: The Wave Climate of the US Pacific Northwest." Coastal Engineering 57, no. 5 (2010): 539-552. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2009.12.005.

Ruggiero, Peter, M. G. Kratzmann, E. A. Himmelstoss, David Reid, John Allan, and George Kaminsky. National assessment of shoreline change—Historical shoreline change along the Pacific Northwest coast: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2012–1007. Reston, VA, US Geological Survey, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/ofr20121007.

Ruggiero, Peter. "Is the Intensifying Wave Climate of the US Pacific Northwest Increasing Flooding and Erosion Risk Faster than Sea-Level Rise?." Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering 139, no. 2 (2012): 88-97. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WW.1943-5460.0000172.

Ruggiero, Peter, George M. Kaminsky, Guy Gelfenbaum, and Nicholas Cohn. "Morphodynamics of Prograding Beaches: A Synthesis of Seasonal-to Century-Scale Observations of the Columbia River Littoral Cell." Marine Geology 376 (2016): 51-68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2016.03.012.

Ruggiero, Peter, Meredith G. Kratzmann, Emily A. Himmelstoss, David Reid, Jonathan Allan, and George Kaminsky. “National Assessment of Shoreline Change: Historical Shoreline Change Along the Pacific Northwest Coast.” US Geological Survey, no. 2012-1007 (2013). https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20121007.

Serafin, Katherine A., Peter Ruggiero, and Hilary F. Stockdon. "The Relative Contribution of Waves, Tides, and Nontidal Residuals to Extreme Total Water Levels on US West Coast Sandy Beaches." Geophysical Research Letters 44, no. 4 (2017): 1839-1847. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071020.

Serafin, Katherine A., and Peter Ruggiero. "Simulating Extreme Total Water Levels Using a Time-Dependent, Extreme Value Approach." Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 119, no. 9 (2014): 6305-6329. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC010093.