Publications

As part of our effort to push the state of climate science, CIRC team members regularly publish the results of our research in peer-reviewed scientific journals. We also aggregate this work and the work of our colleagues in the climate science community into periodic climate assessments. This page is a sampling of that work and is intended for people who want to delve into the details, methods, and assumptions underlying the climate and social science our team members produce.

The Pacific Northwest Climate Impacts Research Consortium (CIRC) CIRC 2.0 YEAR 5 PROGRESS REPORT
Performance Period: June 1st, 2019–May 31st, 2020

 

Climate Assessments

Think of climate assessments as the mile-high view. As their name implies, climate assessments assess. They aggregate, weigh, and judge. They gather the myriad climate reports and studies available, forming them into a whole that helps us glimpse the many ways climate change is likely to impact our lives. Because these impacts are expected to vary from region to region, climate assessments tend to highlight regional impacts. This was true of the Third National Climate Assessment, which covered, in detail, the impacts expected in several US regions. CIRC researchers participated in writing and editing the assessment’s chapter covering the Pacific Northwest. We then took everything we couldn’t fit into that single chapter report—which ended up being quite a lot—and rolled it into an extended climate assessment covering the Pacific Northwest: Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities.  

Dalton, Meghan M., Kathie D. Dello, Linnia Hawkins, Philip W. Mote, and David E. Rupp. The Third Oregon Climate Assessment Report, Oregon Climate Change Research Institute
Corvallis, Oregon: College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, 2017.

Dalton, Meghan M., Philip W. Mote, Amy K. Snover, eds. Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities.
Washington, DC: Island Press, 2013.
Print ISBN: 9781610914284. 
E-Book ISBN: 9781610915120.

Mote, Philip W., Amy K. Snover, Susan Capalbo, Sanford D. Eigenbrode, Patty Glick, Jeremy Littell, Richard Raymondi, and Spencer Reeder. "Chapter 21: Northwest." In Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, edited by Jerry M. Melillo, Terese (TC) Richmond, and Gary W. Yohe, 487-513. 
Washington, D.C.: US Global Change Research Program, 2014. 
(Website.) 

Results From CIRC 1.0

Peer-Reviewed Publications

CIRC team members regularly publish the results of their research and projects in peer-reviewed academic journals. Below is a selection of these publications. To make searching easier, we have organized our publications first by most recent and then broadly by subject. Note: some publications have been listed in more than one section.  

Most Recent Publications (June 1st, 2019–May 31st, 2020)

Abatzoglou, John T., Solomon Z. Dobrowski, and Sean A. Parks. “Multivariate climate departures have outpaced univariate changes across global lands.” Scientific Reports 10, no. 1 (2020): 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-60270-5.

Anderson, Dylan L., A. Rueda, Laura Cagigal, J. A. A. Antolinez, F. J. Mendez, and Peter Ruggiero. “Time-varying Emulator for Short and Long-Term Analysis of Coastal Flood Hazard Potential.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans (2019). https://doi. org/10.1029/2019JC015312.

Antolinez, J.A.A., Anderson, D., Mendez, F., Ruggiero, P., Kaminsky, G., 2019. Understanding long term coastal change and variability using a simple and efficient multi-process model, Proceedings of Coastal Sediments 2019, St. Pete Beach, Florida.

Bennett, Andrew, Joseph Hamman, and Bart Nijssen. “MetSim: A Python package for estimation and disaggregation of meteorological data.” Journal of Open Source Software 5, no. 47 (2020): 2042. https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.02042.

Biel, Rueben G., S. D. Hacker, and Peter Ruggiero. “Elucidating coastal foredune ecomorphodynamics in the US Pacific Northwest via Bayesian networks.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 124, no. 7 (2019): 1919-1938. https://doi. org/10.1029/2018JF004758.

Bonnema, Matthew, Faisal Hossain, Bart Nijssen, and Gordon Holtgrieve. “Hydropower’s hidden transformation of rivers in the Mekong.” Environmental Research Letters 15, no. 4 (2020): 044017. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab763d.

Chegwidden, Oriana, David E. Rupp, and Bart Nijssen. “Upstream processes to determine flood response to climate change.” Environmental Research Letters. (In Press.)

Cheng, Yifan, Nathalie Voisin, John Yearsley, and Bart Nijssen. “Thermal extremes in regulated river systems under climate change: an application to the southeastern US rivers.” Environmental Research Letters (2020). (Accepted Manuscript.)

Craig, Michael T., Paulina Jaramillo, Bri-Mathias Hodge, Bart Nijssen, and Carlo Brancucci. “Compounding climate change impacts during high stress periods for a high wind and solar power system in Texas.” Environmental Research Letters 15, no. 2 (2020): 024002. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6615.

Dahl, Kristina, Rachel Licker, John T. Abatzoglou, and Juan Declet-Barreto. “Increased frequency of and populations exposure to extreme heat index days in the United States during the 21st century.” Environmental Research Communications (2019). https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab27cf.

Daly, Kensey, Shahryar K. Ahmad, Matthew Bonnema, Claire Beveridge, Faisal Hossain, Bart Nijssen, and Gordon Holtgrieve. “Recent warming of Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia: Implications for one of the world’s most productive inland fisheries.” Lakes & Reservoirs: Research & Management (2020). https://doi.org/10.1111/lre.12317.

Doyle, Thomas B., Andrew D. Short, Peter Ruggiero, and Colin D. Woodroffe. “Interdecadal Foredune Changes along the Southeast Australian Coastline: 1942–2014.” Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 7, no. 6 (2019): 177. https://doi. org/10.3390/jmse7060177.

Droppers, B., W. Franssen, M. van Vliet, B. Nijssen, and F. Ludwig, 2020: Simulating human impacts on global water resources using VIC-5. Geoscientific Model Development. (In Press.)

Ficklin, Darren L., John T. Abatzoglou, and Kimberly A. Novick. “A new perspective on terrestrial hydrologic intensity that incorporates atmospheric water demand.” Geophysical Research Letters 46, no. 14 (2019): 8114-8124. https://doi. org/10.1029/2019GL084015.

Roesch-McNally, Gabrielle, Michael Chang, Meghan Dalton, Scott Lowe, Charlie Luce, Christine May, Gary Morishima, Philip Mote, Alexander “Sascha Petersen, and Emily York. “Beyond Climate Impacts: Knowledge Gaps and Process-Based Reflection on Preparing a Regional Chapter for the Fourth National Climate Assessment.” Weather, Climate, and Society 12, no. 3 (2020): 337-350. https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-19-0060.1.

García-Medina, Gabriel, H. Tuba Özkan-Haller, Peter Ruggiero, Rob A. Holman, and Chuan Li. “Runups of unusual size: rogueness and variability of swash.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans (2020). https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015186.

Hawkins, Linnia R., David E. Rupp, Doug J. McNeall, Sihan Li, Richard A. Betts, Philip W. Mote, Sarah N. Sparrow, and David CH Wallom. “Parametric sensitivity of vegetation dynamics in the TRIFFID model and the associated uncertainty in projected climate change impacts on western US forests.” Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 11, no. 8 (2019): 2787-2813. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001577.

Jaeger, William K., Adell Amos, David R. Conklin, Christian Langpap, Kathleen Moore, and Andrew J. Plantinga. “Scope and limitations of drought management within complex human–natural systems.” Nature Sustainability 2, no. 8 (2019): 710-717. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0326-y.

Joseph, Maxwell B., Matthew W. Rossi, Nathan P. Mietkiewicz, Adam L. Mahood, Megan E. Cattau, Lise Ann St. Denis, R. Chelsea Nagy, Virginia Iglesias, John T. Abatzoglou, and Jennifer K. Balch. “Spatiotemporal prediction of wildfire size extremes with Bayesian finite sample maxima.” Ecological Applications 29, no. 6 (2019): e01898. https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.1898.

Kalashnikov, Dmitri A., Paul C. Loikith, Arielle J. Catalano, Duane E. Waliser, Huikyo Lee, and John T. Abatzoglou. “A 30-year climatology of meteorological conditions associated with lightning days in the interior western United States.” Journal of Climate 2020 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0564.1.

Li, Chuan, H. Tuba Ozkan-Haller, Pedro Lomonaco, Timothy B. Maddux, Robert A. Holman, Peter Ruggiero, and Gabriel Garcia-Medina. “Experimental study on the effects of infragravity waves on the merging of multiple bores and the resulting runup.” In Ocean Sciences Meeting 2020. AGU, 2020. https://agu.confex.com/agu/osm20/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/658201.

Li, Sihan, David E. Rupp, Linnia Hawkins, Philip W. Mote, Doug McNeall, Sarah N. Sparrow, David CH Wallom, Richard A. Betts, and Justin J. Wettstein. “Reducing climate model biases by exploring parameter space with large ensembles of climate model simulations and statistical emulation.” Geoscientific Model Development 12, no. 7 (2019).

Mao, Yixin, Wade T. Crow, and Bart Nijssen. “A unified data-driven method to derive hydrologic dynamics from global SMAP surface soil moisture and GPM precipitation data.” Water Resources Research 56, no. 2 (2020): e2019WR024949. https://doi. org/10.1029/2019WR024949.

Mao, Yixin, Wade T. Crow, and Bart Nijssen. “Dual state/rainfall correction via soil moisture assimilation for improved streamflow simulation: Evaluation of a large-scale implementation with SMAP satellite data.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions (2019): 1-34. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-41.

Marshall, Adrienne M., John T. Abatzoglou, Timothy E. Link, and Christopher J. Tennant. “Projected changes in interannual variability of peak snowpack amount and timing in the Western United States.” Geophysical Research Letters (2019). https://doi. org/10.1029/2019GL083770.

Marshall, Adrienne M., Timothy E. Link, Andrew P. Robinson, and John T. Abatzoglou. “Higher snowfall intensity is associated with reduced impacts of warming upon winter snow ablation.” Geophysical Research Letters (2020). https://doi. org/10.1029/2019GL086409.

Morgan, Penelope, Emily K. Heyerdahl, Eva K. Strand, Stephen C. Bunting, James P. Riser II, John T. Abatzoglou, Max Nielsen- Pincus, and Mara Johnson. “Fire and land cover change in the Palouse Prairie–forest ecotone, Washington and Idaho, USA.” Fire Ecology 16, no. 1 (2020): 2.ttps://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-019-0061-9.

Parker, Kai, Peter Ruggiero, Katherine A. Serafin, and David F. Hill. “Emulation as an approach for rapid estuarine modeling.” Coastal Engineering 150 (2019): 79-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2019.03.004.

Parker, Lauren E., and John T. Abatzoglou. “Warming winters reduce chill accumulation for peach production in the Southeastern United States.” Climate 7, no. 8 (2019): 94. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7080094.

Pendergrass, Angeline G., Gerald A. Meehl, Roger Pulwarty, Mike Hobbins, Andrew Hoell, Amir AghaKouchak, Céline JW Bonfils et al. “Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction.” Nature Climate Change 10, no. 3 (2020): 191-199. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0709-0?proof=true1.

Pflug, J. M., G. E. Liston, B. Nijssen, and J. D. Lundquist. “Testing model representations of snowpack liquid water percolation across multiple climates.” Water Resources Research 55, no. 6 (2019): 4820-4838. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR024632.

Pi, Huawei, David R. Huggins, John T. Abatzoglou, and Brenton Sharratt. “Modeling soil wind erosion from agro-ecological classes of the Pacific Northwest in response to current climate.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (2019). https:// doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031104.

Queen, Laura E., Philip W. Mote, David E. Rupp, Oriana Chegwidden, and Bart Nijssen. “Ubiquitous increases in flood magnitude in the Columbia River Basin under climate change.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions (2019): 1-31. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-474. (In Press.)

Ruggiero, Peter, Nicholas Cohn, Bas Hoonhout, Evan Goldstein, Sierd de Vries, Laura Moore, Sally Hacker, and Orencio Durán Vinent. “Simulating dune evolution on managed coastlines: Exploring management options with the Coastal Recovery from Storms Tool (CReST).” Shore & Beach 87, no. 2 (2019). https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Evan_Goldstein2/ publication/335451975_Simulating_dune_evolution_on_managed_coastlines_Exploring_management_options_with_the_ Coastal_Recovery_from_Storms_Tool_CReST/links/5d681016299bf1d59944898b/Simulating-dune-evolution-on-managed- coastlines-Exploring-management-options-with-the-Coastal-Recovery-from-Storms-Tool-CReST.pdf.

Serafin, Katherine A., Peter Ruggiero, Kai Parker, and David F. Hill. “What’s streamflow got to do with it? A probabilistic simulation of the competing oceanographic and fluvial processes driving extreme along-river water levels.” Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 19 (2019). https://ir.library.oregonstate. edu/concern/articles/5m60qz50n.

Williams, A. Park, John T. Abatzoglou, Alexander Gershunov, Janin Guzman-Morales, Daniel A. Bishop, Jennifer K. Balch, and Dennis P. Lettenmaier. “Observed impacts of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire in California.” Earth’s Future (2019). https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001210.

Yearsley, John R., Ning Sun, Marisa Baptiste, and Bart Nijssen. “Assessing the impacts of hydrologic and land use alterations on water temperature in the Farmington River basin in Connecticut.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23, no. 11 (2019): 4491- 4508.9. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4491-2019.

Climate & Climate Modeling

Abatzoglou, John T., and David E. Rupp. "Evaluating Climate Model Simulations of Drought for the Northwestern United States." 
International Journal of Climatology 37, no. S1 (2017): 910–920.
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5046.

Abatzoglou, John T., and Timothy J. Brown. "A Comparison of Statistical Downscaling Methods Suited for Wildfire Applications."
International Journal of Climatology 32, no. 5 (2012): 772-780.
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2312.

Abatzoglou, John T. "Development of Gridded Surface Meteorological Data for Ecological Applications and Modelling."
International Journal of Climatology 33, no. 1 (2013): 121-131.
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3413.

Abatzoglou, John T., David E. Rupp, and Philip W. Mote. "Questionable Evidence of Natural Warming of the Northwestern United States."
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111, no. 52 (2014): E5605-E5606.
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1421311112.

Abatzoglou, John T., David E. Rupp, and Philip W. Mote. "Seasonal Climate Variability and Change in the Pacific Northwest of the United States."
Journal of Climate 27, no. 5 (2014): 2125-2142.
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00218.1.

Abatzoglou, John T., Renaud Barbero, Jacob W. Wolf, and Zachary A. Holden. "Tracking Interannual Streamflow Variability with Drought Indices in the US Pacific Northwest."
Journal of Hydrometeorology 15, no. 5 (2014): 1900-1912.
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-0167.1.

Barbero, Renaud, John T. Abatzoglou, and Katherine C. Hegewisch. "Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling of North American Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts over the Western United States." 
Weather and Forecasting 32, no. 1 (2017): 327-341.
https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-16-0117.1.

Bumbaco, Karin A., Kathie D. Dello, and Nicholas A. Bond. "History of Pacific Northwest Heat Waves: Synoptic Pattern and Trends." 
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 52, no. 7 (2013): 1618-1631.
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-12-094.1.

Huntington, Justin L., Katherine C. Hegewisch, Britta Daudert, Charles G. Morton, John T. Abatzoglou, Daniel J. McEvoy, and Tyler Erickson. "Climate Engine: Cloud Computing and Visualization of Climate and Remote Sensing Data for Advanced Natural Resource Monitoring and Process Understanding." 
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2017, in press (2017).
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00324.1.

Li, Sihan, Philip W. Mote, David E. Rupp, Dean Vickers, Roberto Mera, and Myles Allen. "Evaluation of a Regional Climate Modeling Effort for the Western United States Using a Superensemble from weather@ home."
Journal of Climate 28, no. 19 (2015): 7470-7488.
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00808.1.

Mauger, Guillaume S., Karin A. Bumbaco, Gregory J. Hakim, and Philip W. Mote. "Optimal Design of a Climatological Network: Beyond Practical Considerations."
Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems 2, no. 2 (2013): 199-212.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-2-199-2013.

Mote, Philip W., Levi Brekke, Philip B. Duffy, and Ed Maurer. "Guidelines for Constructing Climate Scenarios." 
Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 92, no. 31 (2011): 257-258.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011EO310001.

Mote, Philip W., Myles R. Allen, Richard G. Jones, Sihan Li, Roberto Mera, David E. Rupp, Ahmed Salahuddin, and Dean Vickers. "Superensemble Regional Climate Modeling for the Western United States." 
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 97, no. 2 (2016): 203-215.
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00090.1.

Mote, Philip W., and Kelly T. Redmond. “Western Climate Change.” In Ecological Consequences of Climate Change, Mechanisms, Conservation, and Management, edited by Erik A. Beever, Jerrold L. Belant, 3-21. Boca Raton, Florida: CRC Press, published by Taylor & Francis Group, LCC, 2011.
Print ISBN: 978-1-4200-8720-8

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Committee on Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change. Washington, DC:
National Academies Press, 2016.  
Print ISBN: 9780309380942. E-book ISBN:9780309380973. 
https://doi.org/10.17226/21852.

Rupp, David E., John T. Abatzoglou, Katherine C. Hegewisch, and Philip W. Mote. "Evaluation of CMIP5 20th Century Climate Simulations for the Pacific Northwest USA." 
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 118, no. 19 (2013).
https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50843.

Rupp, David E., and Sihan Li. "Less Warming Projected During Heavy Winter Precipitation in the Cascades and Sierra Nevada." 
International Journal of Climatology 37, no. 10 (2017): 3984-3990.
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4963.

Rupp, David E., Sihan Li, Philip W. Mote, Karen M. Shell, Neil Massey, Sarah N. Sparrow, David CH Wallom, and Myles R. Allen. "Seasonal Spatial Patterns of Projected Anthropogenic Warming in Complex Terrain: A Modeling Study of the Western US." 
Climate Dynamics (2016): 1-23.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3200-x.

Rupp, David E., John T. Abatzoglou, and Philip W. Mote. "Projections of 21st Century Climate of the Columbia River Basin." 
Climate Dynamics (2016): 1-17.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3418-7.

Rupp, David E., Sihan Li, Philip W. Mote, Karen M. Shell, Neil Massey, Sarah N. Sparrow, David CH Wallom, and Myles R. Allen. "Seasonal Spatial Patterns of Projected Anthropogenic Warming in Complex Terrain: a Modeling Study of the Western US." 
Climate Dynamics 48, no. 7-8 (2017): 2191-2213.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3200-x.

Snowpack, Hydrology, & Drought

Abatzoglou, John T., Daniel J. McEvoy, and Kelly T. Redmond. "The West Wide Drought Tracker: Drought Monitoring at Fine Spatial Scales." 
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2017).
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0193.1.

Abatzoglou, John T., and David E. Rupp. "Evaluating Climate Model Simulations of Drought for the Northwestern United States." 
International Journal of Climatology 37, no. S1 (2017): 910–920.
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5046.

Abatzoglou, John T., Renaud Barbero, Jacob W. Wolf, and Zachary A. Holden. "Tracking Interannual Streamflow Variability with Drought Indices in the US Pacific Northwest."
Journal of Hydrometeorology 15, no. 5 (2014): 1900-1912.
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-0167.1.

Ashfaq, Moetasim, Subimal Ghosh, Shih-Chieh Kao, Laura C. Bowling, Philip W. Mote, Danielle Touma, Sara A. Rauscher, and Noah S. Diffenbaugh. "Near-Term Acceleration of Hydroclimatic Change in the Western US."
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 118, no. 19 (2013).
https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50816.

Bachelet, Dominique, Ken Ferschweiler, Timothy J. Sheehan, and James Strittholt. "Climate Change Effects on Southern California Deserts." 
Journal of Arid Environments 127 (2016): 17-29.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2015.10.003.

Das, Tapash, David W. Pierce, Daniel R. Cayan, Julie A. Vano, and Dennis P. Lettenmaier. "The Importance of Warm Season Warming to Western US Streamflow Changes."
Geophysical Research Letters 38, no. 23 (2011).
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049660.

Gergel, Diana R., Bart Nijssen, John T. Abatzoglou, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, and Matt R. Stumbaugh. "Effects of Climate Change on Snowpack and Fire Potential in the Western USA." 
Climatic Change 141, no. 2 (2017): 287-299.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1899-y.

Jaeger, William K., Andrew J. Plantinga, Heejun Chang, Kathie Dello, Gordon Grant, David Hulse, J. J. McDonnell et al. "Toward a Formal Definition of Water Scarcity in Natural-Human Systems."
Water Resources Research 49, no. 7 (2013): 4506-4517.
https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20249.

Luce, Charles H., John T. Abatzoglou, and Zachary A. Holden. "The Missing Mountain Water: Slower Westerlies Decrease Orographic Enhancement in the Pacific Northwest USA." 
Science 342, no. 6164 (2013): 1360-1364. 
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1242335

Lute, A. C., John T. Abatzoglou, and Katherine C. Hegewisch. "Projected Changes in Snowfall Extremes and Interannual Variability of Snowfall in the Western United States."
Water Resources Research 51, no. 2 (2015): 960-972.
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016267.

Mao, Yixin, Bart Nijssen, and Dennis P. Lettenmaier. "Is Climate Change Implicated in the 2013–2014 California Drought? A Hydrologic Perspective."
Geophysical Research Letters 42, no. 8 (2015): 2805-2813.
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063456.

Mote, Philip W., David E. Rupp, Sihan Li, Darrin J. Sharp, Friederike Otto, Peter F. Uhe, Mu Xiao, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Heidi Cullen, and Myles R. Allen. "Perspectives on the Causes of Exceptionally Low 2015 Snowpack in the Western United States."
Geophysical Research Letters 43, no. 20 (2016).
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069965.

Parker, Lauren E., and John T. Abatzoglou. “Comparing Mechanistic and Empirical Approaches to Modeling the Thermal Niche of Almond.”
International Journal of Biometeorology
(2017): 1-14.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-017-1338-9.

Rupp, David E., Sihan Li, Philip W. Mote, Neil Massey, Sarah N. Sparrow, and David CH Wallom. "Influence of the Ocean and Greenhouse Gases on Severe Drought Likelihood in the Central United States in 2012." 
Journal of Climate 30, no. 5 (2017): 1789-1806.
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0294.1.

Rupp, David E., and Sihan Li. "Less Warming Projected During Heavy Winter Precipitation in the Cascades and Sierra Nevada." 
International Journal of Climatology 37, no. 10 (2017): 3984-3990.
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4963.

Rupp, David E., John T. Abatzoglou, and Philip W. Mote. "Projections of 21st Century Climate of the Columbia River Basin." 
Climate Dynamics (2016): 1-17.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3418-7.

Sun, Ning, John Yearsley, Marisa Baptiste, Qian Cao, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, and Bart Nijssen. "A Spatially Distributed Model for Assessment of the Effects of Changing Land Use and Climate on Urban Stream Quality." 
Hydrological Processes 30, no. 25 (2016): 4779-4798.
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10964.

Turner, David P., David R. Conklin, Kellie B. Vache, Cynthia Schwartz, Anne W. Nolin, Heejun Chang, Eric Watson, and John P. Bolte. "Assessing Mechanisms of Climate Change Impact on the Upland Forest Water Balance of the Willamette River Basin, Oregon." 
Ecohydrology 10, no. 1 (2017).
https://doi.org/10.1002/eco.1776.

Vano, Julie A., Tapash Das, and Dennis P. Lettenmaier. "Hydrologic Sensitivities of Colorado River Runoff to Changes in Precipitation and Temperature."
Journal of Hydrometeorology 13, no. 3 (2012): 932-949.
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-11-069.1.

Vano, Julie A., Bart Nijssen, and Dennis P. Lettenmaier. "Seasonal Hydrologic Responses to Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest."
Water Resources Research 51, no. 4 (2015): 1959-1976.
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015909.

Vano, Julie A., John B. Kim, David E. Rupp, and Philip W. Mote. "Selecting Climate Change Scenarios Using Impact-Relevant Sensitivities."
Geophysical Research Letters 42, no. 13 (2015): 5516-5525.
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063208.

Williams, A. Park, Richard Seager, John T. Abatzoglou, Benjamin I. Cook, Jason E. Smerdon, and Edward R. Cook. "Contribution of Anthropogenic Warming to California Drought During 2012–2014."
Geophysical Research Letters 42, no. 16 (2015): 6819-6828.
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064924.

 

Coastal Hazards & Extremes

Anderson, Dylan L., A. Rueda, Laura Cagigal, J. A. A. Antolinez, F. J. Mendez, and Peter Ruggiero. “Time-varying Emulator for Short and Long-Term Analysis of Coastal Flood Hazard Potential.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans (2019). https://doi. org/10.1029/2019JC015312.

Antolinez, J.A.A., Anderson, D., Mendez, F., Ruggiero, P., Kaminsky, G., 2019. Understanding long term coastal change and variability using a simple and efficient multi-process model, Proceedings of Coastal Sediments 2019, St. Pete Beach, Florida.

Barnard, Patrick L., Daniel Hoover, David M. Hubbard, Alex Snyder, Bonnie C. Ludka, Jonathan Allan, George M. Kaminsky, Peter Ruggiero, Timu W. Gallien, Laura Gabel, Diana McCandless, Heather M. Weiner, Nichola Cohn, Dylan L. Anderson, and Katherine A. Serafin. "Extreme Oceanographic Forcing and Coastal Response Due to the 2015–2016 El Niño." 
Nature Communications 8 (2017).
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14365.

Barnard, Patrick L., Jonathan Allan, Jeff E. Hansen, George M. Kaminsky, Peter Ruggiero, and André Doria. "The impact of the 2009–10 El Niño Modoki on US West Coast beaches." 
Geophysical Research Letters 38, no. 13 (2011).
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047707.

Baron, Heather M., Peter Ruggiero, Nathan J. Wood, Erica L. Harris, Jonathan Allan, Paul D. Komar, and Patrick Corcoran. "Incorporating climate change and morphological uncertainty into coastal change hazard assessments." 
Natural Hazards 75, no. 3 (2015): 2081-2102. 
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1417-8.

Biel, Reuben G., Sally D. Hacker, Peter Ruggiero, Nicholas Cohn, and Eric W. Seabloom. "Coastal Protection and Conservation on Sandy Beaches and Dunes: Context‐Dependent Tradeoffs in Ecosystem Service Supply." 
Ecosphere 8, no. 4 (2017).
https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.1791.

Biel, Rueben G., S. D. Hacker, and Peter Ruggiero. “Elucidating coastal foredune ecomorphodynamics in the US Pacific Northwest via Bayesian networks.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 124, no. 7 (2019): 1919-1938. https://doi. org/10.1029/2018JF004758.

Cohn, Nicholas, and Peter Ruggiero. "The Influence of Seasonal to Interannual Nearshore Profile Variability on Extreme Water Levels: Modeling Wave Runup on Dissipative Beaches."
Coastal Engineering 115 (2016): 79-92. 9
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2016.01.006.

Doyle, Thomas B., Andrew D. Short, Peter Ruggiero, and Colin D. Woodroffe. “Interdecadal Foredune Changes along the Southeast Australian Coastline: 1942–2014.” Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 7, no. 6 (2019): 177. https://doi. org/10.3390/jmse7060177.

García-Medina, Gabriel, H. Tuba Özkan-Haller, Peter Ruggiero, Rob A. Holman, and Chuan Li. “Runups of unusual size: rogueness and variability of swash.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans (2020). https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015186.

García Medina, Gabriel, H. Özkan Haller, Rob A. Holman, and Peter Ruggiero. "Large Runup Controls on a Gently Sloping Dissipative Beach." 
Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 122, no. 7 (2017): 5998–6010.
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC012862.

Komar, Paul D., Jonathan C. Allan, and Peter Ruggiero. "US Pacific Northwest Coastal Hazards: Tectonic and Climate Controls." In Coastal Hazards, edited by by Charles W. Finkl,pp. 587-674. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Springer Netherlands, 2013.
Print ISBN: 978-94-007-5233-7. Online ISBN: 978-94-007-5234-4.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-5234-4_21.

Li, Chuan, H. Tuba Ozkan-Haller, Pedro Lomonaco, Timothy B. Maddux, Robert A. Holman, Peter Ruggiero, and Gabriel Garcia-Medina. “Experimental study on the effects of infragravity waves on the merging of multiple bores and the resulting runup.” In Ocean Sciences Meeting 2020. AGU, 2020. https://agu.confex.com/agu/osm20/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/658201.

Parker, Kai, Peter Ruggiero, Katherine A. Serafin, and David F. Hill. “Emulation as an approach for rapid estuarine modeling.” Coastal Engineering 150 (2019): 79-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2019.03.004.

Kruk, Michael C., John J. Marra, Peter Ruggiero, David Atkinson, Mark Merrifield, David Levinson, and Mark Lander. "Pacific Storms Climatology Products (PSCP): Understanding Extreme Events."
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 94, no. 1 (2013): 13-18.
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00075.1.

Rueda, Ana, Sean Vitousek, Paula Camus, Antonio Tomás, Antonio Espejo, Inigo J. Losada, Patrick L. Barnard, Li H. Erikson, Peter Ruggiero, Borja G. Reguero, and Fernando J. Mendez. "A Global Classification of Coastal Flood Hazard Climates Associated with Large-Scale Oceanographic Forcing."
Scientific Reports 7 (2017).
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-05090-w.

Ruggiero, Peter, Heather Baron, Erica Harris, Jonathan Allan, Paul D. Komar, and Patrick Corcoran. "Incorporating Uncertainty Associated with Climate Change into Coastal Vulnerability Assessments." In Solutions to Coastal Disasters 2011 Proceedings of the 2011 Solutions to Coastal Disasters Conference, June 25-29, 2011 Anchorage, Alaska, edited by Louise A. Wallendorf, Chris Jones, Lesley Ewing, and Bob Battalio, 602-613.
American Society of Civil Engineers, 2011.
Print ISBN: 9780784411858. 
https://doi.org/10.1061/41185(417)52.

Ruggiero, Peter, Paul D. Komar, and Jonathan C. Allan. "Increasing Wave Heights and Extreme Value Projections: The Wave Climate of the US Pacific Northwest."
Coastal Engineering 57, no. 5 (2010): 539-552.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2009.12.005.

Ruggiero, Peter, M. G. Kratzmann, E. A. Himmelstoss, David Reid, John Allan, and George Kaminsky. National assessment of shoreline change—Historical shoreline change along the Pacific Northwest coast: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2012–1007. Reston, VA, US Geological Survey, 2012.
http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/ofr20121007.

Ruggiero, Peter. "Is the Intensifying Wave Climate of the US Pacific Northwest Increasing Flooding and Erosion Risk Faster than Sea-Level Rise?."
Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering 139, no. 2 (2012): 88-97.
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WW.1943-5460.0000172.

Ruggiero, Peter, George M. Kaminsky, Guy Gelfenbaum, and Nicholas Cohn. "Morphodynamics of Prograding Beaches: A Synthesis of Seasonal-to Century-Scale Observations of the Columbia River Littoral Cell."
Marine Geology 376 (2016): 51-68.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2016.03.012.

Ruggiero, Peter, Meredith G. Kratzmann, Emily A. Himmelstoss, David Reid, Jonathan Allan, and George Kaminsky. “National Assessment of Shoreline Change: Historical Shoreline Change Along the Pacific Northwest Coast.”
US Geological Survey, no. 2012-1007 (2013).
https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20121007.

Serafin, Katherine A., Peter Ruggiero, Kai Parker, and David F. Hill. “What’s streamflow got to do with it? A probabilistic simulation of the competing oceanographic and fluvial processes driving extreme along-river water levels.” Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 19 (2019). https://ir.library.oregonstate. edu/concern/articles/5m60qz50n.

Serafin, Katherine A., Peter Ruggiero, and Hilary F. Stockdon. "The Relative Contribution of Waves, Tides, and Nontidal Residuals to Extreme Total Water Levels on US West Coast Sandy Beaches."
Geophysical Research Letters 44, no. 4 (2017): 1839-1847.
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071020.

Serafin, Katherine A., and Peter Ruggiero. "Simulating Extreme Total Water Levels Using a Time-Dependent, Extreme Value Approach."
Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 119, no. 9 (2014): 6305-6329.
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC010093.

Executive Summary to the Spokane Climate Vulnerability and Resilience Assessment

 

Climate Adaptation & Social Science

 

Amos, Adell L. "Developing the Law of the River: The Integration of Law and Policy into Hydrologic and Socio-Economic Modeling Efforts in the Willamette River Basin." 
University of Kansas Law Review, 62 (2014): 1091-1139.
https://doi.org/10.17161/1808.20266.

Brown, Melanie, and Dominique Bachelet. "BLM Sagebrush Managers Give Feedback on Eight Climate Web Applications." 
Weather, Climate, and Society 9, no. 1 (2017): 39-52. 
https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-16-0034.1.

Dahl, Kristina, Rachel Licker, John T. Abatzoglou, and Juan Declet-Barreto. “Increased frequency of and populations exposure to extreme heat index days in the United States during the 21st century.” Environmental Research Communications (2019). https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab27cf.

Katherine C. Hegewisch, Britta Daudert, Charles G. Morton, John T. Abatzoglou, Daniel J. McEvoy, and Tyler Erickson. "Climate Engine: Cloud Computing and Visualization of Climate and Remote Sensing Data for Advanced Natural Resource Monitoring and Process Understanding." 
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2017).
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00324.1.

Inouye, Allison M., Denise H. Lach, John Stevenson, John P. Bolte, and Jennifer Koch. "Participatory Modeling to Assess Climate Impacts on Water Resources in the Big Wood Basin, Idaho." In Environmental Modeling with Stakeholders, edited by Steven Gray, Michael Paolisso, Rebecca Jordan, and Stefan Gray, 289-306. AG, Switzerland:
Springer International Publishing, 2017.
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-25051-9. Online ISBN: 978-3-319-25053-3.
 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-25053-3_14

Klos, P. Zion, John T. Abatzoglou, Alycia Bean, Jarod Blades, Melissa A. Clark, Megan Dodd, Troy E. Hall et al. "Indicators of Climate Change in Idaho: An Assessment Framework for Coupling Biophysical Change and Social Perception a." 
Weather, Climate, and Society 7, no. 3 (2015): 238-254. 
https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00070.1.

Jaeger, William K., Adell Amos, David R. Conklin, Christian Langpap, Kathleen Moore, and Andrew J. Plantinga. “Scope and limitations of drought management within complex human–natural systems.” Nature Sustainability 2, no. 8 (2019): 710-717. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0326-y.

Lach, Denise. “An Experiment in Post-Normal Science: Building a Knowledge-to-Action-Network in Idaho.” In New Strategies for Wicked Problems: Science and Solutions in the 21st century, edited by Edward P. Weber, Denise Lach, and Brent Steel, Corvallis, Oregon:
Oregon State University Press, 2017.
Print ISBN: 9780870718939. 
http://osupress.oregonstate.edu/book/new-strategies-for-wicked-problems.

Maldonado, Julie, TM Bull Bennett, Karletta Chief, Patricia Cochran, Karen Cozzetto, Bob Gough, Margaret Hiza Redsteer, Kathy Lynn, Nancy Maynard, and Garrit Voggesser. "Engagement with indigenous peoples and honoring traditional knowledge systems." 
Climatic Change 135, no. 1 (2016): 111-126.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1535-7.

Ruggiero, Peter, Heather Baron, Erica Harris, Jonathan Allan, Paul D. Komar, and Patrick Corcoran. "Incorporating Uncertainty Associated with Climate Change into Coastal Vulnerability Assessments." In Solutions to Coastal Disasters, edited by Bilal M. Ayyub and Michael S. Kearney, 602-613. Reston, Virginia:
American Society of Civil Engineers, 2011.
 Print ISBN 9780784412008. E-book ISBN 9780784476512.
 https://doi.org/10.1061/41185(417)52.

Stevenson, John, Michael Crimmins, Jessica Whitehead, Julie Brugger, and Clyde Fraisse. "Connecting climate information with practical uses: Extension and the NOAA RISA program." In Climate in Context: Science and Society Partnering for Adaptation, edited by Adam S. Parris, Gregg M. Garfin, Kirstin Dow, Ryan Meyer, and Sarah L. Close, 75-98. Hoboken, New Jersey:
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., 2016. 
Print ISBN: 9781118474792. E-book ISBN: 9781118474785. 
https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118474785.

Weber, Edward P., Denise Lach, and Brent S. Steel, editors. New Strategies for Wicked Problems: Science and Solutions in the 21st Century. Corvallis, Oregon:
Oregon State University Press, 2017.
Print ISBN: 9780870718939. 
http://osupress.oregonstate.edu/book/new-strategies-for-wicked-problems.

Winters, Kirsten M., Judith B. Cushing, and Denise Lach. "Designing Visualization Software for Super-Wicked Problems." 
Information Polity Preprint 21, no. 4 (2016): 399-409.
https://doi.org/10.3233/IP-160400.

Wolters, Erika Allen, Brent S. Steel, Denise Lach, and Daniel Kloepfer. "What is the Best Available Science? A Comparison of Marine Scientists, Managers, and Interest Groups in the United States." 
Ocean & Coastal Management 
122 (2016): 95-102.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2016.01.011.

Wildfires, Forests, & Agriculture

Abatzoglou, John T., and A. Park Williams. "Impact of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Wildfire across Western US Forests."
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113, no. 42 (2016): 11770-11775.
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1607171113.

Abatzoglou, John T., Crystal A. Kolden, A. Park Williams, James A. Lutz, and Alistair MS Smith. "Climatic Influences on Interannual Variability in Regional Burn Severity across Western US forests." 
International Journal of Wildland Fire, no. 4 (2017): 269-275.
https://doi.org/10.1071/WF16165.

Bachelet, Dominique, Brendan M. Rogers, and David R. Conklin. "Challenges and Limitations of Using a DGVM for Local to Regional Applications." In Global Vegetation Dynamics: Concepts and Applications in the MC1 Model, Geophysical Monograph 213, First Edition, edited by Dominique Bachelet and David Turner. Hoboken: 31-40.
American Geophysical Union published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2015.
Print ISBN: 978-1-119-01169-9. 
https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119011705.ch3.

Bachelet, Dominique, Ken Ferschweiler, Timothy J. Sheehan, Benjamin M. Sleeter, and Zhiliang Zhu. "Projected Carbon Stocks in the Conterminous USA with Land Use and Variable Fire Regimes."
Global Change Biology 21, no. 12 (2015): 4548-4560.
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13048.

Bachelet, Dominique, Timothy J. Sheehan, Ken Ferschweiler, and John T. Abatzoglou. "Simulating Vegetation Change, Carbon Cycling, and Fire Over the Western United States Using CMIP5 Climate Projections." In Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment: Modeling and Decision Support, Geophysical Monograph 223, First Edition, edited by Karin Riley, Peter Webly, and Matthew Thompson. Hoboken: 257-275.
American Geophysical Union published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2017.
Print ISBN: 9781119027867.

Balch, Jennifer K., Bethany A. Bradley, John T. Abatzoglou, R. Chelsea Nagy, Emily J. Fusco, and Adam L. Mahood. "Human-Started Wildfires Expand the Fire Niche Across the United States."
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, no. 11 (2017): 2946-2951.
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1617394114.

Barbero, Renaud, John T. Abatzoglou, Narasimhan Larkin, Crystal A. Kolden, and B. J. Stocks. "Climate Change Presents Increased Potential for Very Large Fires in the Contiguous United States."
International Journal of Wildland Fire 24, no. 7 (2015): 892-899.
https://doi.org/10.1071/WF15083.

Bowman, David M.J.S., Grant J. Williamson, John T. Abatzoglou, Crystal A. Kolden, Mark A. Cochrane, and Alistair MS Smith. "Human exposure and sensitivity to globally extreme wildfire events."
Nature Ecology & Evolution 1 (2017): 0058.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-016-0058.

Buotte, Polly C., Jeffrey A. Hicke, Haiganoush K. Preisler, John T. Abatzoglou, Kenneth F. Raffa, and Jesse A. Logan. "Recent and Future Climate Suitability for Whitebark Pine Mortality from Mountain Pine Beetles Varies Across the Western US." 
Forest Ecology and Management 399 (2017): 132-142.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2017.05.032.

Gergel, Diana R., Bart Nijssen, John T. Abatzoglou, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, and Matt R. Stumbaugh. "Effects of Climate Change on Snowpack and Fire Potential in the Western USA." 
Climatic Change 141, no. 2 (2017): 287-299.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1899-y.

Hardegree, Stuart P., John T. Abatzoglou, Mark W. Brunson, Matthew J. Germino, Katherine C. Hegewisch, Corey A. Moffet, David S. Pilliod, Bruce A. Roundy, Alex R. Boehm, and Gwendwr R. Meredith. "Weather-Centric Rangeland Revegetation Planning." 
Rangeland Ecology & Management (2017).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rama.2017.07.003.

Mu, Jianhong E., Benjamin M. Sleeter, John T. Abatzoglou, and John M. Antle. "Climate Impacts on Agricultural Land Use in the USA: The Role of Socio-Economic Scenarios." 
Climatic Change (2017): 1-17.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2033-x.

Parker, Lauren E., and John T. Abatzoglou. "Projected Changes in Cold Hardiness Zones and Suitable Overwinter Ranges of Perennial Crops over the United States."
Environmental Research Letters 11, no. 3 (2016): 034001.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034001.

Rupp, David E., and Sihan Li. "Less warming projected during heavy winter precipitation in the Cascades and Sierra Nevada." 
International Journal of Climatology 37, no. 10 (2017): 3984-3990.
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4963.

Rupp, David E., John T. Abatzoglou, Katherine C. Hegewisch, and Philip W. Mote. "Evaluation of CMIP5 20th Century Climate Simulations for the Pacific Northwest USA."
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 118, no. 19 (2013).
https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50843.

Stavros, E. Natasha, John T. Abatzoglou, Donald McKenzie, and Narasimhan K. Larkin. "Regional Projections of the Likelihood of Very Large Wildland Fires under a Changing Climate in the Contiguous Western United States."
Climatic Change 126, no. 3-4 (2014): 455-468.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1229-6.

Sheehan, Timothy J., Dominique Bachelet, and Ken Ferschweiler.  “Projected Major Fire and Vegetation Changes in the Pacific Northwest of the Conterminous United States under Selected CMIP5 Climate Futures.”
Ecological Modeling 317 (2015): 16-29.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.08.023.

Turner, David P., William D. Ritts, Robert E. Kennedy, Andrew N. Gray, and Zhiqiang Yang. "Effects of Harvest, Fire, and Pest/Pathogen Disturbances on the West Cascades Ecoregion Carbon Balance."
Carbon Balance and Management 10, no. 1 (2015): 12.
https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-015-0022-9.

Turner, David P., David R. Conklin, and John P. Bolte. "Projected climate change impacts on forest land cover and land use over the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, USA."
Climatic Change 133, no. 2 (2015): 335-348.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1465-4.

Xiao, Mu, Bart Nijssen, and Dennis P. Lettenmaier. "Drought in the Pacific Northwest, 1920–2013." 
Journal of Hydrometeorology 17, no. 9 (2016): 2391-2404.
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-15-0142.1.